Increasing tensions between US and China

Increasing tensions between US and China

den 17 augusti 2020 författare Carlsquare

The US-China relations remains in focus. This weekend's scheduled meeting was canceled due to "conflict in the calendars". Considering that it was the world's two superpowers that would meet, we have a hard time believing that someone double-booked the meetings and canceled this particular meeting, so it is again a signal that the talks are frosty.

Still nobody wants meetings where nothing can be decided because it only creates disappointments in the system. President Trump's demand that TikTok sell its US operations for security reasons is, of course, a red veil for China. Another is that the United States will go ahead and complete a sale of the American fighter plane F16 to Taiwan.

However, the Central Bank of China is pushing in new liquidity. Friday´s trading was a not very happy but the trend to buy things that have fallen behind in the upswing continues. This again benefits the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 ahead of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is traded just below the all-time high, so it would be almost strange if this level could not be taken out. The trend Is still strong upwards and there are no sell signals in the market. However, the number of warning signals is increasing. First, the USD may have bottomed out. In addition, the market for junk bonds does not follow up with the S&P 500. This indicates that the risk appetite in the market is beginning to decline.

Nasdaq did not manage to break above previous its top but both EMA9 as well as MA20 is upwards sloping meaning that the short-term trend is still positive. However, momentum is fading shown by a slightly downward sloping MACD. A phase of consolidation may be possible as the market is waiting for another trigger that can push the index to new highs.

The Tesla share has broken up from a bullish flag formation. These typically tend to be followed by a continued rally. However, there are two obvious warning signals in this case. First, MACD is clearly falling indicating a negative momentum. Secondly, Friday’s trading ended up with a bearish hanging man-doji. The first level on the downside is made up by EMA9 at 1530:

Swedish OMXS30 index fell relatively sharply on Friday but managed to close at MA20. Momentum has for some time not been convincing illustrated by a falling MACD and a horizontal trending EMA9 and MA20. In case of a break to the downside, below MA20, the next support level can be found around 1 725:

Nordea is lagging as the share has tested Fibonacci 61,8 three times without managing to break up. Now the share is testing the upwards sloping trendline, close to MA200 and Fibonacci 50. A break to the downside below these levels and the next support level can be found at MA100 currently trading around SEK 63:

The German DAX index is also struggling, which is illustrated by a falling MACD. Again, EMA9 and MA20 is trading sideways. On the downside, EMA9 and MA20 serves as the first two support levels followed by MA50 right above the 12 600-level:

Bull & Bear-certifikat

 Symbol ISINUnderliggande referensvärdeHävstångTypVal.KöpSälj 
BULL APPLE X10 VON1
DE000VF533C5 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL APPLE X10 VON10
DE000VP2RC04 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,036 0,04
BULL APPLE X10 VON11
DE000VP3MTV0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,028 0,032
BULL APPLE X10 VON12
DE000VP3NQ50 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,014 0,02
BULL APPLE X10 VON15
DE000VP9V6U9 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,076 0,08
BULL APPLE X10 VON14
DE000VP9VHN0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,156 0,16
BULL APPLE X10 VON18
DE000VV11SJ7 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,638 0,644
BULL APPLE X10 VON19
DE000VV19AU5 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 1,68 1,70
BULL APPLE X10 VON20
DE000VV2K3W0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 4,89 4,93
BULL APPLE X10 VON21
DE000VV3R221 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 11,68 11,78
BULL APPLE X10 VON22
DE000VV67GW7 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 34,19 34,47
BULL APPLE X10 VON23
DE000VV8Z9Y0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 79,03 79,66
BULL APPLE X10 VON17
DE000VX8WXW8 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,316 0,32
BULL WTI X10 VON53
DE000VV34D70 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,012 0,022
BULL WTI X10 VON46
DE000VX5RHK2 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,001
BULL WTI X10 VON48
DE000VX8XQQ2 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL WTI X10 VON49
DE000VX8ZH15 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,001
BULL WTI X10 VON52
DE000VX94FH0 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,006 0,015
BULL WTI X10 VON51
DE000VX9K3V1 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL WTI X10 VON50
DE000VX9KN39 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,004 0,01

Bitcoin has been strong during the summer and is still trading above EMA9 and MA20. Note how momentum is fading as MACD has generated a weak sell signal. A break below MA20 at 11 526 calls for further downside to the psychologically important 11 000-level. The next support is made up by MA50 currently trading at 10 220:

Bull & Bear-certifikat

 Symbol ISINUnderliggande referensvärdeHävstångTypVal.KöpSälj 
BULL APPLE X10 VON1
DE000VF533C5 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL APPLE X10 VON10
DE000VP2RC04 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,036 0,04
BULL APPLE X10 VON11
DE000VP3MTV0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,028 0,032
BULL APPLE X10 VON12
DE000VP3NQ50 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,014 0,02
BULL APPLE X10 VON15
DE000VP9V6U9 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,076 0,08
BULL APPLE X10 VON14
DE000VP9VHN0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,156 0,16
BULL APPLE X10 VON18
DE000VV11SJ7 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,638 0,644
BULL APPLE X10 VON19
DE000VV19AU5 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 1,68 1,70
BULL APPLE X10 VON20
DE000VV2K3W0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 4,89 4,93
BULL APPLE X10 VON21
DE000VV3R221 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 11,68 11,78
BULL APPLE X10 VON22
DE000VV67GW7 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 34,19 34,47
BULL APPLE X10 VON23
DE000VV8Z9Y0 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 79,03 79,66
BULL APPLE X10 VON17
DE000VX8WXW8 Apple Inc. 10,00 Long SEK 0,316 0,32
BULL WTI X10 VON53
DE000VV34D70 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,012 0,022
BULL WTI X10 VON46
DE000VX5RHK2 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,001
BULL WTI X10 VON48
DE000VX8XQQ2 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL WTI X10 VON49
DE000VX8ZH15 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,001
BULL WTI X10 VON52
DE000VX94FH0 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,006 0,015
BULL WTI X10 VON51
DE000VX9K3V1 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,002
BULL WTI X10 VON50
DE000VX9KN39 WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Future Jan 2023 10,00 Long SEK 0,004 0,01

The Gold price has rallied with some help from a weaker USD. However, last week was tough for gold. MACD has generated a weak sell signal and the metal is under pressure by a sloping EMA9. A break below Fibonacci 23,6 and the 1 000-level calls for further downside to levels around 1 840 where MA50 and Fibonacci 38.2 meet up:

Legal notice

This information is in the sole responsibility of the guest author and does not necessarily represent the opinion of Bank Vontobel Europe AG or any other company of the Vontobel Group. The further development of the index or a company as well as its share price depends on a large number of company-, group- and sector-specific as well as economic factors. When forming his investment decision, each investor must take into account the risk of price losses. Please note that investing in these products will not generate ongoing income.

The products are not capitalprotected, in the worst case a total loss of the invested capital is possible. In the event of insolvency of the issuer and the guarantor, the investor bears the risk of a total loss of his investment. In any case, investors should note that past performance and / or analysts' opinions are no adequate indicator of future performance. The performance of the underlyings depends on a variety of economic, entrepreneurial and political factors that should be taken into account in the formation of a market expectation.


2022-12-09 06:43:49

 

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