Nonfarm payrolls on Friday, what's cooking

Nonfarm payrolls on Friday, what's cooking

06 October 2022 from Carlsquare

To fight inflation, the Fed is doing its best to cool the labour market and the economic demand. Friday's (7 October) release of nonfarm payrolls for September in the US will show whether the central bank's efforts are answered or not. Looking at the falling data for initial jobless claims in September, the Fed’s efforts do not seem to have any effect. Nevertheless, this week, ahead of the nonfarm payrolls, the ten-year US Treasury yield has declined. The upcoming job data can thus again put upwards pressure on the interest rates.

Initial jobless claims (1,000), 13 January-5 October 2022

Source: Department of Labor and Carlsquare.

Falling interest rates have weakened the USD. As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is trading close to resistance in the shape of a falling trendline. Does this provide an opportunity to sell EUR/USD?

EUR/USD, daily one-year price chart

Source: Infront and Carlsquare. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

EUR/USD, weekly five-year share price chart

Source: Infront and Carlsquare. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:
EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average
Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.
MA20: 20-day moving average
MA50: 50-day moving average
MA100: 100-day moving average
MA200: 200-day moving average
MACD: Moving average convergence divergence

Important notice

 
This information is neither an investment advice nor an investment or investment strategy recommendation, but advertisement. The complete information on the trading products (securities) mentioned herein, in particular the structure and risks associated with an investment, are described in the base prospectus, together with any supplements, as well as the final terms. The base prospectus and final terms constitute the solely binding sales documents for the securities and are available under the product links. It is recommended that potential investors read these documents before making any investment decision. The documents and the key information document are published on the website of the issuer, Vontobel Financial Products GmbH, Bockenheimer Landstrasse 24, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on prospectus.vontobel.com and are available from the issuer free of charge. The approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the securities. The securities are products that are not simple and may be difficult to understand. This information includes or relates to figures of past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

01/02/2023 14:12:33

 

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