DAX Market Analysis, March 2021

DAX Market Analysis, March 2021

08 March 2021

DAX resumed uptrend in February and reached almost +3% for the month. However the positive momentum happened on week 1 whereas next weeks were technically speaking rebound from the strong leg up. Last month we highlighted possible triple tops at 13500-13700, however DAX broke through and resistance level was formed around 14100 points that has held to date. Also monthly R1 pivot is at this level, shown on the weekly chart.

On monthly chart (below), DAX continues in uptrend, last 3 months have been mostly consolidation, gaining strength for the next move. Probabilities are favoring that trend continues (so move upwards), however a move to longer term EMA6/12 averages is also possible.

Long term support levels: 12000, 13000

Long term resistance levels: 14100, 15000

Below weekly chart with month’s pivot levels shown. After testing R1 pivot, DAX rebounded downwards, testing EMA12 twice and then breaking it and continuing to EMA6 level. As this held, the month ended with a clear positive gain. As mentioned many times before, EMA6 and EMA12 levels are very good to keep in mind when looking for entry and exit levels, as shown again here. Technically speaking the room for movement for DAX between R1 pivot and EMA6/EMA12 lines is quite narrow. With EMA lines forming an upwards line, a wedge is forming where probability is that we would see break upwards.

Medium term resistance levels: 14100, 14460

Medium term support levels: 13760, 13920

For a Long view, DAX holding EMA6 line is important (currently 13763) and also EMA12 (13920) and act as a good point for entry, using e.g. Vontobel’s TLNG DAX VT152

For a short trade, 14100 level is important - if DAX breaks this upwards, it is more likely that we see more up ahead. So turning that around, it works as a good place for short entry with a very tight stop and good risk/reward balance. E.g. TSRT DAX VT74:

Investors’ sentiment in USA is clearly bullish. S&P500 volatility is low - it has not been this low in last 6 months.

Historically, March has been slightly positive for DAX.

Above: McClellan is hovering around zero - market is looking for direction.

Above: Split of shares in DAX Indexk between those above and below their respective DMA20 averages. Net is slightly on the positive side.

Above: Summary of DAX technical indicators - it is a mixed bag with long term strong buy and short term strong sell.

Above: Historical daily and weekly changes for DAX.

Summary of world’s most important futures: it is a mixed bag also here, same as for DAX.

Important Notice

This information is neither an investment advice nor an investment or investment strategy recommendation, but advertisement. The complete information on the securities, in particular the structure and risks associated with an investment, are described in the base prospectus, together with any supplements, as well as the final terms . It is recommended that potential investors read these documents before making any investment decision. The documents and the key information document are published on the website of the issuer, Vontobel Financial Products GmbH, Bockenheimer Landstrasse 24, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on prospectus.vontobel.com and are available from the issuer free of charge. The approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the securities. The securities are products that are not simple and may be difficult to understand. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

13/05/2021 13:47:27


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