DAX Market analysis, November 2019

DAX Market analysis, November 2019

13 November 2019

DAX gained over 3% in October and the toughest resistance level so far this year got broken to the upside. During the writing of this analysis, DAX has already gained over 2% (currently 13280). It is likely, that the biggest gain has already been seen this month. DAX mid term and longer term trend are still both in bullish mode. However, from a technical perspective, it is likely that DAX will start consolidating or pullback next 1-2 weeks. 

DAX longer term trend is still bullish measured with EMA6 and EMA12 and the faster moving average EMA6 is also above EMA12. The index has escaped a bit from moving averages and thus it seems likely that somekind of a corrective move is to be expected back to moving averages. The level 12500 is for the near term future the more important support level, the bullish trend is in danger if DAX put a monthly close below. The closest reistance level is right now 13550.

Long term trend support levels: 12500
Long term trend resistance levels: 13500

Below the weekly chart where monthly pivots are plotted. The monthly pivot point is 12575 and resistance 1 (R1) is at 13270 and support 1 (S1) is at 12175. The moving average EMA6 is still above EMA12, thus the trend still seems bullish based on this measurement. DAX is also close to the roof of the rising trend channel and far from moving averages on this time frame. The trend is up but a corrective move or a consolidation seems likely at this point.

Mid term resistance levels: 13200
Mid term support levels: 12260, 12950

The investor sentiment in the USA is on the bullish side and also the SPX volatility is low. The volatility is at a cycle low and thus more volatility is could be possiblewithin 2-3 weeks if the same pattern continues for 2019.

 

November has historically been a stong month for the DAX.

The percentage of underlying instruments in the DAX index which are above or below its 20 day moving average (DMA20). This indicator is bullish right now.

McClellan oscillator is plotting a big negative divergence. This is a sign of warning that a possible corrective move could happen within the next 1-4 weeks.

Technical indicators summary of underlying instruments in the DAX index. Long, mid and short term trend are all pointing up. When all gauges point up, this often turns into a contra indicator, that is a correction could follow.

DAX historical average weekly moves for November.

DAX intraday volatility has lately been below 2%. Now the volatility has been low for that many days in a row, that a bigger volatility day/period could possible be on the horison the incoming 5 trading days.

Note: Please note with respect to the information provided above that past performance of a financial instrument is not necessarily indicative of the future performance of that financial instrument.
25/01/2020 06:38:36

 

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