DAX Market analysis, April 2019

DAX Market analysis, April 2019

09 April 2019

DAX was range bound during March and finally ended the month closing barely positive +0,15%. April has started off strong for the index and DAX is right now (4.4.2019) gained already cloe to 4%. April has since 1997 historically been a strong month and this trend seems to continue. If we end this month in green, it will be the 4th month in a row ending in green for the year 2019. Year to date, DAX has now gained around 13%.

The 6 month (half year) moving average (EMA6) is now navigating south and also 12 month moving average (EMA12) is about to turn up. DAX is currently traded above both these moving averages. It is though to be expected, that DAX will test EMA12 several times. EMA12 is currently at 11745. 

DAX has gained strongly on the monthly chart and we are already close to Pivot Resistance 2 level for April only after 4 days of trading. The probability that we have seen most of the gain for this month already, is quite high and that we should see some range trading coming up next.

Long term trend support levels: 11750, 11550
Long term trend resistance levels: 12100, 12300, 12800

On the daily chart, DAX has now gained 9 days in a row, which is quite unusual. The indicator RSI is also giving quite high readings, that is a bullish sign but at the same time could be flagging a pullback around the corner or at least consolidation. DAX is also currently a tad extended when measured to its faster moving averages on the daily chart.

Support levels: 11700, 11600
Resistance levels: 12100, 12450

When looking at the investor sentiment in the USA, the bullish sentiment has now made a series of lower highs at the same time when volatility has been rising a bit. This could be an indication of a corrective move and/or consolidation up next in the markets.

The technical indicators summary for world futures is in strong buy-mode for all time frames.

April has historically been a positive month for the DAX index and one of the strongest months of the year.

The percentage of underlying instruments in the DAX index which are above or below its 20 day moving average (DMA20); more part of the instruments are above its DMA20 which is a bullish indication.

The McClellan oscillator is well above its zero line which is a bullish indication. The reading is though somewhat high and we should expect consolidation or pullback up next.

Technical indicators summary of underlying instruments in the DAX index. On the short term, indicators are in strong buy mode and on the limit to be “overbought” and thus a time out in the current advance is to be expected. Mid term is now also bullish and the long term is also showing more positive readings.

Summary of DAX underlying performance since start of the year. Wirecard is the worst performer in the index for the year 2019.

Historically every week in April has been performing good for the DAX.

The last 35 days of range has been between 1% - 1,5%. This range is quite tight and tight range is mostly a bullish indication.


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04/10/2022 06:50:49


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